Planning Is Guessing

Definition

Long-term business plans feel like control but aren't — too many factors (markets, competitors, the economy) sit outside anyone's hands. Fried and Hansson's fix is semantic and behavioral at once: "Why don't we just call plans what they really are: guesses ... Start referring to your business plans as business guesses." Once named honestly, a plan stops commanding the obedience a "plan" implies.

In the Book

The chapter argues plans are actively harmful, not just useless: "Plans let the past drive the future... Plans are inconsistent with improvisation." It also flags a timing problem — you have the most information about a decision while doing the work, yet a plan is written before you've even begun, "the worst time to make a big decision." The prescription isn't to abandon foresight entirely (thinking about the future is "worthwhile") but to stop writing it down as commitment: "Decide what you're going to do this week, not this year." The chapter closes with a travel metaphor — "It's OK to wing it. Just get on the plane and go" — you can buy the shirt and toothbrush once you land.

Why It Matters

Distinguishing a genuine commitment from a guess dressed as one changes what you're willing to defend and when you're willing to change course. Any domain that fetishizes a written plan over the judgment made in the moment — with the most current information — is paying for a false sense of control, and re-labeling the artifact ("guess," not "plan") is a cheap way to restore the humility the situation actually calls for.