Study Guide: Chapter 10 — Mental Models

Core Idea

Good ideas fail in practice because they conflict with tacit mental models. People act consistent with their theory-in-use, not their espoused theory. Reflection skills (leaps of abstraction, left-hand column) and inquiry skills (balancing inquiry and advocacy) surface and test these models.

Key Terms

Mental model · espoused theory vs. theory-in-use · leap of abstraction · left-hand column · balancing inquiry and advocacy

Case Summary

Detroit's "styling over quality" assumption set cost the Big Three 38% market share to imports by 1986. Shell's Pierre Wack redesigned scenarios to make managers question their own worldview rather than just deliver forecasts — Shell went from weakest to strongest of the seven oil majors (1970-1979). Hanover's internal boards and MOL seminars institutionalize testing mental models without imposing "the authorized model."

Application Checklist

• [ ] Catch one of your own "facts about people" and ask what specific observations it was actually built from
• [ ] Try a left-hand-column write-up of a stuck conversation to surface what you're not saying
• [ ] In your next disagreement, state your own reasoning and data, then genuinely ask for the other side's

Self-Test

1. Why did Shell's accurate 1972 forecasts fail to change managers' behavior at first?
2. What is a "leap of abstraction," and why does the Laura example show it becoming unquestionable?
3. Why does pure advocacy between two people escalate like an arms race, and what breaks the cycle?