Study Guide: Chapter 9 — Optimism

Core Idea

All evils are caused by insufficient knowledge. Optimism is the factual claim that every failure is a knowledge-gap, and knowledge is creatable. Pessimism is prophecy — claiming to know the unknowable bounds of future knowledge. Problems are inevitable; problems are soluble.

Key Terms

Principle of optimism · blind pessimism/optimism · prophecy (error) · problems inevitable & soluble

Case Summary

An asteroid strike is a preventable knowledge-deployment failure (Spaceguard), not fate. Athens' criticism vs Sparta's engineered stasis — the static society can't self-correct.

Application Checklist

• [ ] Rewrite three persistent problems as "we don't yet know how to..." statements
• [ ] Ban prophecy in planning; keep scenarios and error-budgets
• [ ] Fund your Spaceguard — the survey for problems you'd rather ignore

Self-Test

1. What precisely is the principle of optimism?
2. Why is pessimism a form of prophecy?
3. How do blind optimism and blind pessimism share an error?